Why we can already rule out 137 players at Oakmont

We’ve crunched the numbers – and, with just one round gone at Oakmont, the hopes of lifting the trophy are already over for 88% of the 156-man US Open field. Including some huge names…

We love numbers here at TG. We also love history, so we’ve combined the two to work out who will win the year’s third major with 18 holes now in the books. Yes, we know, we got it wrong at The Masters as Rory McIlroy bucked the historic trends to complete the Career Grand Slam. Still, our math didn’t rule Scottie Scheffler out after the opening round of the PGA Championship, and look what happened there, so we’re aiming for two from three with our Oakmont analysis.

To work out who will be adding their name to the famous US Open Trophy in Pennsylvania come Sunday, we’ve spent our Thursday evening punching loads of numbers from the past 30 years of the tournament’s opening round into a spreadsheet to narrow down the options, working out how many of those chasing leader JJ Spaun (below) still have a realistic shot.

Now, we’ve only gone back 30 years, because anything before that feels a bit too out of touch. (Also, it’s just so many numbers.) There might be an argument to shrink the sample size to 20, or maybe even 10, but frankly, the data doesn’t change much between them. So let’s stick with it.

Feel free to @ me on X and call me some less-than-complimentary names if I’ve ruled out the man you backed or I turn out to be wrong. My skin’s thicker than the rough at Oakmont.

What do the 30-year trends look like?

Since Corey Pavin came from T46th and six shots back to win at Shinnecock Hills in 1995, eventually prevailing by a couple of shots over Greg Norman, the eventual champion has been, on average, inside the top 14 and within three shots (2.63 to be exact) of the lead.

Let’s have a look at that table we’ve been teasing, shall we?

Can anyone buck the trend?

Of course they can. These guys are the best in the world after all.

As you can see, there have been some seriously impressive comebacks, but in recent years, they’ve become a rarity.

There was a run of impressive comebacks from slow starts. First Pavin, then, the following year at Oakland Hills, Steve Jones (not to be confused with his namesake who founded The Sex Pistols), was a whopping seven back and T84th at the end of Thursday. He went on to beat Davis Love III and Tom Lehman by a single shot on two-under having bounced back from his opening 74 with rounds of 66-69-69.

The following two years saw that theme continue with Ernie Els charging from six back (T18th) at Congressional Country Club to win by a shot and deny Colin Montgomerie his maiden major. And in 1998, Lee Janzen bounced back from a seven-shot opening day deficit (T37th) to pip Payne Stewart by a single shot and be the only man not over par for the tournament.

But, since 1999, when Stewart went one better and lifted the trophy at Pinehurst just months before his tragic death in a plane crash, only two players have come from more than four back to be crowned champ. And only one has been outside of the top 20 with three rounds to play (Brooks Koepka was T46th and six back in his defence in 2018).

So who can we effectively rule out of the US Open?

If we go by the average of the last 30 years, we’d rule out everyone outside of the top 14 or more than three shots back.

Because it has happened in recent times, I’m willing to extend that to four shots, largely because we are all golf fans, they’re all within the top 14 and we want the strongest leaderboard possible moving into the weekend. Good news then for the likes of 2015 winner Jordan Spieth, two-time major champ Collin Morikawa, Adam Scott (playing his 96th consecutive major, btw), and Ryder Cup star Robert MacIntyre, who are all level par after opening 70s.

But then I have to start being ruthless. No matter how good Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Bryson DeChambeau, Viktor Hovland, Brian Harman, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Keegan Bradley, Tommy Fleetwood, and Matt Fitzpatrick are, I’m afraid their hopes are over. Phil Mickelson’s rapidly fading hopes of completing the Career Grand Slam dim further. Justin Thomas’ disappointing major season will continue, while Shane Lowry, many people’s pick for this week, can start preparing for his attempt at back-to-back Portrush Open wins. In fact, all of these players can kiss goodbye to their hopes of winning that beautiful trophy.

Now, I’ve been wrong before (several times per day if I’m to believe my kids), but if, by some miracle, any one of those is lifting the silverware come Sunday, I’ll happily wear a “I’m an idiot who knows nothing about golf” t-shirt to all press conferences and around the course at The Open in a few weeks.

Come on then – where’s the winner coming from?

I am, however, sticking to the trends here. Anyone inside the top 14 or within 3 of the lead is in.

Ladies and gentlemen, your 2025 US Open champion is one of these 19 players…

What do the Oakmont stats say?

Of course, defending the lead for another 54 holes at Oakmont is going to be exceptionally tough, especially if things get firmer, so it’ll be no surprise if Spaun or Im slip back, especially when they don’t have the experience of a major victory to draw on. But chasing from a distance at Oakmont is arguably even harder, knowing that one mistake could end your charge. Slow and steady will win the race across the next three days. If any of the chasing pack can avoid their scores going backwards, they’ll be in with a real shout.

But do Oakmont’s US Open stats offer any of those I’ve ruled out a quick reprieve. Erm, no. Far from it. Based on recent history, we’d be ruling out even more players.

The Pennsylvania course, one of the most difficult tests in the world, is hosting for a record 10th time, and the stats show that making a comeback after a slow start is extremely rare. Only two players have ever come back from five or more behind. And only one man has ever been outside the top 30 and only three have been outside of the top ten. Four have either led or been second after the opening 18.

Tommy Armour, who won in a playoff in the first Oakmont US Open in 1927, was T15th and five back. In 1935, Sam Parks Jnr was six back in T28th. Ben Hogan led by three in 1953, Jack Nicklaus was T10th and three back in 1962, and Johnny Miller was T5th and four back in ’73. Larry Nelson produced an excellent comeback, having been six behind and T40th in 1983, before Ernie Els had an easier job in 1994 having sat T2nd, trailing by just one.

Angel Cabrera, the winner in 2007, was just a shot behind leader Nick Dougherty after Thursday, while Dustin Johnson was T2nd and one shot back of Andrew Landry when the opening round was completed on Friday after a weather delay. So, in the last three playings, no eventual winner has been more than a shot behind or lower than second after Thursday’s play.

If we take just the Oakmont average, which is substantially skewed by those first two tournaments 90 years ago and beyond, anyone outside the top 12 and more than three (2.66) behind is ruled out. And if we go on the last three, the Thursday leader doesn’t win, and if you’re more than one shot and one place behind that, your hopes are over.

We’ll let the engraver know he can start practising his Thriston Lawrence inscription, then…