Arsenal star Gabriel Magalhaes (£6.6m) has not yet been officially ruled out of Gameweek 12 of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) but all signs are pointing to a lay-off for the Brazilian centre-back.
Should he miss the north London derby and potentially the rest of this calendar year, FPL bosses may have no choice but to sell the game’s most expensive and highly owned defensive asset.
But for those with more than one member of Arsenal’s impressive backline in their squads, or for managers considering a sideways move to another Gunner, we thought it could be useful to take a look at how Arteta’s men fare with and without such a key player in the side.
To try and determine this, we’ll have a quick look at the Gunners’ performances with Gabriel this season, followed by their matches in which he was and wasn’t (due to two separate injuries) involved during the 2024/25 campaign.
If you want to skip to the with/without comparison, click here!
FPL 2025/26: With Gabriel
A 90-minute man in all 11 of Arsenal’s matches in the Premier League so far this season, Gabriel has started all four (and completed two) of the Gunners’ four flawless Champions League outings to date, too.
He ranks first in Arteta’s squad for blocks, clearances, aerial duels and total defensive contributions (DefCon):
With him as an ever-present figure in the XI, the Gunners’ league-leading defensive statistics as a team include: fewest conceded shots (81), shots in the box (23), shots on target (21), attempts from set plays (24), Opta-defined ‘big chances’ (8, half the next smallest tally), key passes through the middle (18) and errors leading to a goal (0).
No surprise, then, that Mikel Arteta’s side have by far the lowest expected goals conceded (xGC) tally:
Through Gameweek 11, Arsenal have also conceded the fewest goals (5) and kept the most clean sheets (7) of any Premier League club.
But what about last season?
FPL 2024/25: With Gabriel (Gameweeks 1-13, 16-30)
In the 2024/25 Premier League campaign, Gabriel started every match between Gameweeks 1-13, completing all but two of them.
One of the games in which he was replaced early was a 2-2 home draw with Liverpool, with the hosts conceding a late equaliser when a makeshift defence of Jakub Kiwior and Ben White (£5.3m) was undone by a counter-attack.
The other, a 5-2 win at West Ham United, saw all seven goals scored in a frantic first half during which Gabriel bagged one, assisted another and was then withdrawn at the interval with a knee injury that caused him to miss the subsequent two league fixtures.
Taking that Gameweek 13 goalfest at the London Stadium out of consideration, let’s have a look at Arsenal’s defensive stats through Gameweek 12 of last season.
Arsenal’s early-season defensive performances with Gabriel
| Total shots conceded (league rank) | Shots on target conceded (league rank) | Opta big chances conceded (league rank) | Goals conceded (league rank) | Clean sheets (league rank) | ||
| 2024/25 (GW1-12) | 158 (10th most) | 46 (T=4th) | 20 (3rd) | 12 (2nd) | 4 (3rd) | |
| Avg per GW | 13.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
*rank = fewest, unless otherwise stated
Now for a slightly larger sample size.
Recovered from his knee issue, Gabriel went on to start and complete every Premier League match between FPL Gameweeks 16 and 29 last season, before he was withdrawn with a season-ending hamstring injury a quarter of an hour into Gameweek 30, with Fulham’s late consolation effort that day coming well after he was off the pitch.
Arsenal’s mid-season defensive performances with Gabriel
| Total shots conceded (league rank) | Shots on target conceded (league rank) | Opta big chances conceded (league rank) | Goals conceded (league rank) | Clean sheets (league rank) | |
| 2024/25: Gameweeks 16-29 | 105 (1st) | 40 (1st) | 16 (1st) | 9 (1st) | 6 (T=2nd) |
| Avg per GW | 7.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
*rank = fewest, unless otherwise stated
As you can see above, the Gunners showed improvement in their defensive stats across the board as a team from the first to second thirds of the season.
Adding those two time periods together (minus the two matches where Gabriel was subbed earlier, in Gameweeks 13 and 30), we get the following total stats and per-Gameweek averages spread across his 26 appearances:
Arsenal’s overall 2024/25 defensive performances with Gabriel
| Total shots conceded | Shots on target conceded | Opta big chances conceded | Goals conceded | Clean sheets | |
| With Gabriel… | 263 | 86 | 36 | 21 | 10 |
| Avg per GW | 10 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
All of that just illustrates what we all already know: Arsenal are a pretty good side when Gabriel is around!
Time for the crucial question, then…
FPL 2024/25: Without Gabriel (Gameweeks 14-15, 31-38)
One way of assessing how the Gunners might get on defensively if Gabriel misses any extended amount of time in the near future is to look at how they fared last season when he wasn’t present.
As we’ve mentioned, the Brazilian was out at two different times…
Brief absence (Gameweeks 14-15)
Not much can be gleaned from a two-match window in isolation, but the Gunners did manage to keep a clean sheet at home to a pretty woeful Manchester United Utd in the first match Gabriel missed last season.
In the second, his replacement Kiwior was left behind as Fulham scored an early opener in what finished as a 1-1 draw. Interestingly, William Saliba (£6.0m) – a potential Gabriel replacement in FPL again now – netted in both games.
Gameweeks 31-38
Instead, the north Londoners’ home stretch of the 2024/25 campaign might offer a better glimpse of life without Gabriel.
In the Premier League, that accounted for eight matches, of which Arsenal won three, drew four and lost one (at home to Bournemouth).
They conceded nine goals in that time, more than six other clubs, and kept only two clean sheets, with seven teams achieving more shut-outs.
Arsenal’s overall 2024/25 defensive performances without Gabriel
| Total shots conceded (league rank) | Shots on target conceded (league rank) | Opta big chances conceded (league rank) | Goals conceded (league rank) | Clean sheets (league rank) | |
| 2024/25 GW 31-38 | 71 (2nd) | 22 (3rd) | 18 (=9th) | 9 | 2 |
| 2024/25 GW 14-15 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Without Gabriel… (total) | 78 | 26 | 18 | 10 | 3 |
| Avg per GW(10 matches) | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
*rank = fewest, unless otherwise stated
With Gabriel v Without Gabriel
To wrap up all those numbers into one table…
Arsenal’s 2024/25 defensive performances with and without Gabriel
| Total shots conceded | Shots on target conceded | Opta big chances conceded | Goals conceded | Clean sheets | |
| With Gabriel… (total) | 263 | 86 | 36 | 21 | 10 |
| Avg per GW (26 matches) | 10 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Without Gabriel… (total) | 78 | 26 | 18 | 10 | 3 |
| Avg per GW(10 matches) | 7.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
So (albeit with a smaller sample size), Arsenal actually conceded fewer shots and shots on target without Gabriel than with him.
However, they conceded ‘big chances’ and goals at a higher rate per 90 minutes while also keeping clean sheets at a lower rate.
Adding back in the two games we’ve omitted from our statistical analysis due to Gabriel’s early withdrawals (which, as a reminder, Arsenal won both of) left the team’s league record last season with and without him as follows:
- Arsenal 2024/25 record with Gabriel: P28, W16, D9, L3
- Arsenal 2024/25 record without Gabriel: P10, W4, D5, L1
Arteta’s group therefore lost just once when Gabriel wasn’t present in the Premier League last season, but they seemed less defensively solid.
In the two matches immediately after Gabriel did his hamstring, the Gunners twice let slip a lead shortly after scoring to draw 1-1 against Everton and Brentford.
After getting past relegated Ipswich Town, they then went on a three-game run featuring a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace, a 2-1 home loss to Bournemouth, and their second 2-2 draw with Liverpool.
Better-quality replacements this time?
“It just flows,” is how Arteta has previously described Gabriel’s central defensive partnership with Saliba. So, who can stand in for him?
Last season’s deputy, Kiwior, left on loan to Porto during the summer transfer window, but Arteta added a few new troops to his squad as well in the form of Cristhian Mosquera (£5.4m) and Piero Hincapie (£5.4m)
Hincapie might be the most like-for-like Gabriel replacement at Arteta’s disposal, as an aggressive left-footed defender who the Arsenal boss has described as a “warrior”. A groin injury early in the campaign has limited him to just two starts, however, both in the cups.
Fellow summer arrival Mosquera has more experience under Arteta. He was thrown on early when Saliba went down injured at Anfield and then started the 3-0 win over Forest a fortnight later. He’s been on substitute duty in the Premier League since then, but has completed both of his new club’s Carabao Cup outings to date and has featured in three Champions League games, one as a starter.
One caveat against Mosquera: he’s right-footed and has only played as a right-sided centre-back for Arsenal (including when starting alongside Saliba against Port Vale). Still, he did feature as a left-sided defender for Valencia, so may be trusted to do so again.
Another option is to move Riccardo Calafiori (£5.8m) to centre-back and use Hincapie or Myles Lewis-Skelly (£5.1m) at left-back but with the Gunners having been so successful with the attack-minded Calafiori on the flank, it may be the least appealing option.
Whoever gets the nod, the key takeaway here is that all of the names above appear to be an upgrade on Kiwior. Arteta and the Arsenal board have seemingly learned their lessons from previous years, amassing a bloated squad that is fit to cope with an injury in any position.
Hincapie and Mosquera don’t have the years of experience and understanding alongside Saliba. But both have looked quietly impressive in what pitch-time they’ve been afforded, with Mosquera’s superb performance against elite-level opposition (Liverpool) instilling some quiet confidence that Gabriel may not be as missed as he was in 2024/25.
