Golf betting tips: British Masters final round
4pts Matt Fitzpatrick to win the British Masters at 6/4 (General)
1pt Fitzpatrick and Nicolai Hojgaard to win their two-balls at 31/10 (BoyleSports)
Having been doing this, or a version or it, for 15 years now, I like to think that for the most part my reading of golf tournaments is good. That is to say, the working out is logical, conclusions sound, even if we don’t always land on the right player. Hopefully, more often than not, we are in the right areas, to borrow a cricketing phrase.
Not this week. The Belfry’s Brabazon Course was unmistakably vulnerable to big hitters 12 months ago, yet in the years before we’d seen Richard Bland win his first title, Richie Ramsay throw one away, Oliver Wilson nearly produce a third smash-and-grab, and so on. In other words, one swallow doesn’t make a summer, and more fool me for believing that it might.
Quite why things have reverted back to how they were before, I’m not totally sure. But having been at the course on Tuesday, I was stunned at how receptive it was, how green it looked, and how juicy the rough was. At the end of this long, hot British summer, I had envisaged something altogether more bouncy, altogether more brown. Fairways have been easier to hit and in this particular instance, the fact they were so hard to find last year played into the hands of the bombers.
In Marco Penge, Tom Vaillant and Nicolai Hojgaard there are still some powerhouses in the mix, but this isn’t lopsided in the way I’d hoped. And in a reminder to us all to try not to overcomplicate matters, the first three players in the betting heading into round four feature the best two players in the field, and the undisputed form player on the DP World Tour.
The first two are Matt Fitzpatrick and Alex Noren, who’ve played four Ryder Cups between them but none together. That seems likely to remain the case as there probably isn’t room for both at Bethpage, with Fitzpatrick’s place assured and Noren’s dependent on more than winning this tournament. He will though surely have to win this tournament if he’s to have any hope whatsoever.
Were Penge to do so, Europe would either have to change plans and find room for him, or to do as the USA did two years ago and overlook someone with back-to-back wins right before the selection process is completed. Unlike Lucas Glover, Penge has the added benefit of being a complete x-factor pick; a wild card in the truest sense, one with the power to make him feel like a really good course fit. He’d possibly be the longest driver in a Ryder Cup that features Bryson DeChambeau.
All of this hinges on the performance of Rasmus Hojgaard, who will qualify with a two-way share of 29th or better. Tied for 14th entering Sunday, with his twin brother Nicolai among those up ahead, I reckon Rasmus can shoot 72 and squeeze into Luke Donald’s team, perhaps 73 if he’s lucky. Should he fail to do that, given what we’ve seen from those at the top of this leaderboard plus Harry Hall in the US, surely Hojgaard’s place would be up for grabs.
As for who wins this tournament, something that almost feels like it has become a sub-plot to the sub-plot, MATT FITZPATRICK boasts an outstanding record from the lead and will be very hard to beat.
Eight times, Fitzpatrick has held a clear lead, four times he has won. On the other four occasions he’s carded under-par rounds but been beaten, three times into second, once into third. His worst scores came in his first time leading on his own on the DP World Tour and PGA Tour respectively, and since those he’s had no troubles at all.
On a further six occasions, he’s shared the lead and these throw up three more wins and three more second places. That gives us a sample size of 14 leads or shares of the lead and 13 times he’s been first or second, once he’s been third. All of these have been at DP World Tour level or higher, one of the wins coming in a major, and you really will do well to find a more impressive record in all of golf.
Based on that, how assured he’s looked off the tee, the form he’s shown since the beginning of summer and his recent experience contending in major championships, Fitzpatrick is extremely difficult to get away from even allowing for the strength towards the top of this leaderboard. He can remove any lingering Ryder Cup doubt (I have none, personally) and justify pre-tournament favouritism.
Penge continues to improve but I do wonder if this win-or-bust scenario, days after a ding-dong battle in Denmark, could result in a rare misstep in what’s been an exceptional run from total obscurity to wild card option. Many will feel he’s the value pick at 6/1 from two behind but I’d prefer Nicolai Hojgaard at a point and a half bigger. It could be worth remembering he’s won bigger events in the past.
Noren has and plenty of them. Indeed like Fitzpatrick this title is already on his CV. He’s rightly priced as the main threat after a scintillating finish but it’s almost 10 years since he won anything from close to the lead entering Sunday and recently he’s been underwhelming. Better known for his smash-and-grabs from miles adrift, the final group has become an unfamiliar place and Fitzpatrick holds all the aces.
With that in mind, doubling Fitzpatrick and Hojgaard for their two-balls also makes some appeal. Further down the field, Rasmus may feel that they’re batting for him if his own mission doesn’t go to plan. I reckon there’s a strong chance they’ll both deliver.
Posted at 1800 BST on 23/08/25
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