7H AGO
Nico Echavarria sinks 4-foot birdie putt on No. 18 at Cognizant Classic
A
Change Text Size
Written by Will Gray
Third-round play concluded before the worst of the weather rolled through town at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, but Shane Lowry still had enough time to make a Moving Day charge.
Lowry’s 8-under 63 was the best of the day, and it briefly gave him sole possession of the lead before overnight leader Austin Smotherman matched him at 13 under after birdies on each of his final two holes. The two men will share the final tee time of the day on Sunday, tied atop a crowded leaderboard that includes seven players within three shots of the lead.
Smotherman started the day with a three-shot lead, but now it’s Lowry who has the edge in the eyes of oddsmakers as the Irishman looks to win his first individual title on TOUR since The Open in 2019.
Updated odds to win Cognizant Classic (via DraftKings)
- +150: Shane Lowry
- +365: Austin Smotherman
- +470: Nico Echavarria
- +560: Taylor Moore
- +2000: Ricky Castillo, Jimmy Stanger
- +3300: A.J. Ewart
It’s no surprise to see Lowry and Smotherman atop the leaderboard through 54 holes, as they rank first and third, respectively, in Strokes Gained: Approach. PGA National has long been heralded as a venue that rewards accurate iron play. But it’s a short price for Lowry, despite his experience and pedigree, given the volatility that can strike on the The Champion Course – and the fact that Lowry has struggled to close out 54-hole leads on TOUR. In five such prior instances, including at this event two years ago, Lowry’s lone conversion came at Royal Portrush in 2019.
As a result, I’m willing to take my chances by scrolling down the board a bit heading into the final round.
Nico Echavarria (+470) to win
If Lowry goes on to win, it would surprise no one. But between his 54-hole track record, the water that lurks around every corner at PGA National and the crunched leaderboard, I think there’s value in a player like Echavarria who has won twice on TOUR in recent years and will start the day just one shot back. Echavarria overcame an absolutely dreadful day on the greens Friday, salvaging a 1-over 72, and turned in a bogey-free effort on Saturday.
Nico Echavarria sinks 4-foot birdie putt on No. 18 at Cognizant Classic
He won’t face the final group pressures that could plague a player like Smotherman, who is looking to close out a breakthrough victory, but his one-shot deficit could be erased in the first couple of holes. Echavarria has struggled this year, with four missed cuts in five starts, but he did well the one time he did play the weekend (T8 at Pebble Beach) and has those two wins in addition to a handful of close calls, like a playoff loss at last year’s Sony Open in Hawaii. At more than triple the price of Lowry, he’s an intriguing option from the chase pack.
Round 4 two-ball, Jimmy Stanger (+148) over Ricky Castillo
This line seems a bit out of whack for two players who are plenty familiar with Florida golf and are each in search of a breakthrough moment. Castillo has been stronger this season, with solid results in each of his three prior starts, while Stanger will start the final round one shot closer to the lead.
Jimmy Stanger hits 145-yard bunker shot to 8 feet, sets up birdie on No. 14 at Cognizant Classic
Looking back to last year, Stanger has cracked 70 in six of seven career rounds at PGA National, a trend that included a topsy turvy second round that included two eagles and two double bogeys. He was steadier on Saturday en route to a 65, and he now sits 13th or better in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, SG: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting.
Castillo doesn’t have poor metrics by any means, but his -184 price is a touch steep for my liking. I’ll gladly side with Stanger in a head-to-head that feels much more like a coin flip.
For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-MY-RESET today.
