Ben Coley takes you through the three-ball coupon ahead of Thursday’s first round of the Open Championship.
Golf betting tips: Open three-balls
1pt Herbert and Johnson to win their three-balls at 7/2 (General)
1pt McCarty and Hall to win their three-balls at 17/4 (General)
0.5pt four-fold Herbert, Johnson, McCarty, Hall at 28/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Oosthuizen to beat Migliozzi and Choi* (0646)
The first-round three-balls coupon is not as straightforward to assess as I had hoped. In part that’s because the way these are priced nowadays means several firms have in effect mutually agreed to skip certain matches, but also there are players I’d like to be with paired with players I don’t want to be against. That makes it tricky.
The asterisk above denotes a couple of selections which are only available with bet365, William Hill, and three smaller firms. It’s difficult to know what the right approach is in the circumstances but given that access to these selections is so limited, they will stay out of the staking plan and my record. The analysis is included for those readers who can and wish to back them.
First then, LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN, buoyed by an ace on Tuesday, can win this low-key early group. The former Open champion has stacks of links form across a range of courses and his long-game has been good on the LIV Golf circuit lately, particularly when almost winning in Dallas. Last week, only the putter let him down.
Oosthuizen was 20th here in 2019 and played solidly at Hoylake two years ago, another Harry Colt-designed Open course, so he has enough in his favour to believe he’ll comfortably outscore veteran KJ Choi. That leaves Guido Migliozzi, who is struggling badly through the bag and hasn’t really played well since January, bar the odd flourish here and there.
Erratic off the tee, Migliozzi looks set to struggle whereas Oosthuizen seems a reliable proposition, one who rates the banker of the morning.
Johnson to beat Smith and Li (0741)
The first official morning selection is DUSTIN JOHNSON, which wasn’t necessarily the plan although I did write in my player-by-player guide that I think he might actually play OK this week. Certainly, he’s started to show a bit more on the LIV Golf circuit and it’s good to see that his ball-striking has been the driving force behind a run of 10-13-7, latterly at Valderrama.
Jordan Smith is the form pick and his long-game was excellent in Scotland, after he’d putted well when runner-up in Germany. Clearly, one of the most solid tee-to-green operators on the DP World Tour has his game nicely sharp but I’ve never considered him a natural links golfer and this will be an altogether different test than the Scottish Open, where his old putting woes also returned.
Without a significant Open finish to his name Smith will do well to live with an on-song DJ and I think that’s also true of Haotong Li, who isn’t playing as well as he was in the early part of the year. He does have a big Open result on his CV, third at Birkdale, but has been nowhere near making the cut on his last three goes, one of which was here at Portrush. He also played poorly last week.
Another way to view this is how do I feel Smith and Li would’ve done in those three LIV events. My suspicion is not as well as Johnson and as he’s not even clear favourite for this, he’s worth the risks that come with the fact that his major record has taken a turn for the worse.
Herbert to beat Riley and Clarke (0752)
I find myself keen on a handful of LIV Golf players, the next of whom is LUCAS HERBERT who stamped his class all over qualifying. He missed the cut on his last Open start but only because of his short-game, which is ordinarily a strength. Better can be expected here at Portrush for a player who has five top-10s in limited appearances in the Irish and Scottish Opens, some under links conditions, others not.
As ever, the opposition is key. Darren Clarke did light up the course early on in the 2019 renewal but six years have now passed and, ultimately, he did still miss the cut back then. Last year at Troon he produced an excellent second round to avoid making it seven missed cuts a row but went on to finish 75th of 80 players and while his seniors form is decent this year, I think this will prove too much for him.
The third member of the group is Davis Riley, one of the last players into the field following Paul Waring’s withdrawal. Riley shot 78 in round one of his Open debut and missed the cut at a playable Hoylake. This could be a good deal tougher, especially now that wind has crept into the forecast, and his performances since contending for the PGA Championship suggest he will struggle.
Riley is good around the greens but he can be about as wild as they come and while that’s also somewhat true of Herbert, his recent, successful links experience and much superior links record give him a big edge. This is a long way from Quail Hollow.
Naidoo to beat Fichardt and Axelsen* (1053)
Darren Fichardt’s miserable Open record means he was the first name I looked for on the tee sheet. The 50-year-old has played in seven of them and six have featured a round of 80-plus. The first five ended in missed cuts, then last year he finally made it, only to fall down to last place come Sunday evening. Rounds of 80-78 might’ve had him wishing he hadn’t made the weekend after all.
Hand on heart, his young compatriot DYLAN NAIDOO wouldn’t have been first choice in terms of a player with whom to take Fichardt on, but I do think he ought to be clear favourite. For starters, he’s close to a shot per round better than John Axelsen at the moment, the Dane not yet fulfilling his potential on the HotelPlanner Tour. Last week, playing on the side of the mountain in Europe, worlds away from this, he wasn’t far off last.
And as for how Naidoo stacks up with Fichardt, the head-to-head reads 5-0-1 in his favour this year, or 11-5-1 if you break it down by round. In other words, two-thirds of the time he’s outscored Fichardt over 18 holes; never has he lost to him over 72. Naidoo is proving a better golfer right now and the SA Open champion, a victory which came by the sea, has played some decent golf on the DP World Tour more recently.
Fichardt has been doing OK on the Legends Tour but this is completely different and while I understand why he might be given some credit by the market for his experience, one look at his Open record tells you that it is not merited in this case. Again, the asterisk is there to explain why this selection isn’t in my staking plan. The double with Oosthuizen pays just shy of 4/1.
McCarty to beat Norris and Hidalgo (1315)
Backing a debutant from the US isn’t necessarily the way you’d want to be heading into the afternoon on day one of the Open, but MATT MCCARTY impressed in Scotland last week and looks the right type. His short-game is good, he’s accurate off the tee, he’s contended recently on the PGA Tour, and he adds an intriguing layer to the top left-hander market. Top debutant is also one in which he can compete.
But my interest is in this three-ball where he’s in with Shaun Norris, whose Open record is very poor, and Angel Hidalgo, who has been struggling. Hidalgo came through qualifying just as he did last year, but that ended in rounds of 77-76 for a wide-margin missed cut and his long-game last week was troublingly poor. It’s hard to see how he turns it around even if I could see him improving at a lower level soon enough.
Norris looks more of a threat but shot 73-76 to miss the cut here in 2019 and his best Open finish in five tries is 61st. His best round one position is only slightly superior having been 58th after a 71 at Birkdale a long time ago, but essentially he’s been out of this very early every single time. The same looks likely come Thursday evening.
As a final note on this one, McCarty is close to the top 50 in the world in DataGolf‘s rankings. Norris is outside the top 200, Hidalgo is outside the top 400, and siding with the best player at odds-against is an easy decision despite the unknowns surrounding the fact that he’s never been tested in this way before.
Hall to beat Rai and Theegala (1348)
I was somewhat keen on Aaron Rai a month or so ago, partly because of a Scottish Open win in rainy conditions, but also a strong record in Ireland and at Harry Colt’s Wentworth. The thing is he’s definitely not playing as well as he was a few months ago and as he’s a somewhat rigid player, who thrives on surgical golf, deep down I don’t have him marked as the type who is genuinely suited to links golf.
HARRY HALL might be, as he grew up playing a cliffside course in Cornwall and has since developed one of the very best short-games in you’ll find. That short-game has powered a run of seven top-25s in succession, one of which came in the PGA Championship, and it was not at all surprising to see him qualify for the Open with no fuss at all a couple of weeks ago.
Hall leads the head-to-head 5-1-1 since Sawgrass so his current form is better and so I think is his game for the course, so that’s more than enough to justify taking 6/4 in a group which features the returning Sahith Theegala.
Considered a viable Ryder Cup candidate at the beginning of the year, 2025 has basically been a nightmare for Theegala and he hasn’t played since the beginning of June. He has opening rounds of 77 and 79 in this tournament away from St Andrews and the only real positive is that he played with Rai in the Zurich Classic, making this a nice group. Hopefully that makes him less likely to withdraw before he hits a shot.
Posted at 2100 BST on 15/07/25
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