Ben Coley’s first-round leader preview for the Open

Golf betting tips: First-round leader

1pt e.w. Sam Burns at 70/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Cameron Smith at 90/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

First-round leaders in the US Open tend to be from the very highest echelons of the sport. In fact, the biggest surprise in recent years came from JJ Spaun, who went on to win the thing last month. Spaun was not among the favourites in what’s always an open market, but nor was he completely out of the blue having enjoyed the strongest season of his career.

In the Open Championship, things are a little different. Daniel Brown was on nobody’s radar last year, nor JB Holmes here in 2019. Amateurs Tom Lewis and Christo Lamprecht have been among the pace-setters along with Emiliano Grillo; even someone like Cam Young, who had shot 76-77 in the Scottish Open days before St Andrews, would’ve been very difficult to find.

Key to whether to even contemplate having a crack is the weather, itself unpredictable, but on the eve of the tournament it seems likely that the earlier the better. At least, these are the groups most likely to escape some or even most of the rain which is sure to arrive by lunchtime, and could make it difficult for the afternoon starters. Delays are possible with some thunder also forecast, so beyond Thursday who can say whether we’ll get a clear bias by the time everything has been settled. On Thursday, though, early looks best.

But for that, Justin Thomas would’ve been on my radar. He’s been a habitual fast starter in the Open, finished with a flourish in Scotland, and definitely has low rounds in him this week. I’m just expending him to run into too much trouble to be a serious factor over 72 holes and while it’s tempting to take 50/1 and hope that some sort of delay sets him up perfectly, I’ll resist and focus on the morning.

Brown had marked our cards with an opening 65 the week before and maybe CAMERON SMITH did the same by sharing the lead at Valderrama before finishing seventh overall.

Smith has definitely gone down a level since winning the Claret Jug in 2022, but he sounds quite bullish about the state of his game and having become a father in the spring, it’s reasonable to give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s seemingly getting there now and his brilliant short-game will always make him a potential factor in the Open.

It was here in 2019 that he first fell for links golf, carding a second-round 66 during a week where only one player bettered 65. Subsequently third after round one at St Andrews, I can see him bettering that if the best version of his long-game turns up. Over 72 holes I wouldn’t expect it to, but 18 seems plausible and while there are caveats, he has five first-round leads in his last 50 starts.

Even before joining LIV, where fields are smaller and weaker at the bottom than the PGA Tour, he’d become a habitual fast starter with three leads in his last 30-odd starts as a member, and at bigger than 50s from a potentially ideal draw at 0657 BST, I like his chances.

Louis Oosthuizen, Dustin Johnson and Portrush member Tom McKibbin are other potential candidates from LIV Golf and the latter is particularly tempting at about 80/1. I just worry a little that there will be plenty of expectations as the local boy out in the very first group, acutely aware of what happened to McIlroy here 2019, and we’ll see if playing with Padraig Harrington helps.

So while it could be that he’s just a little later than ideal at 0947, it’s SAM BURNS for me.

He’s 15th in the DataGolf rankings and has been one of the form players on the PGA Tour this spring, yet has been dismissed in the betting owing to a perception that he can’t play links golf. Maybe that’s true and it certainly looked it during the first round last year, when he was seven-over through 11 holes.

Yet come Saturday night, Burns had climbed to second, courtesy of the very best score that day and the second-best on Friday. From, the 12th hole in round one through to the end of round three he was an impressive eight-under, a miraculous recovery that came to a shuddering halt on Sunday, it must be said.

Like Smith he’s an exceptional putter, handy in a one-round shootout, and although it’s been a while since he led after round one, his Friday 65 in the US Open was the best of the day by two. Only one player had beaten his final-round score at Quail Hollow a month earlier so Burns has been regularly producing some of the very best stuff in majors, just not yet for four rounds.

Contending at Oakmont could be the final step along the road to doing so but I can’t quite imagine his iron play standing up to the test of an Open. At 70/1 from a morning slot, he looks a far better bet for the first-round lead.

Posted at 1755 BST on 16/07/25

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