Geoff Ulrich prepares you for the Cognizant Classic with is top PGA TOUR DraftKings Pick6 plays of the tournament.
This week’s PGA TOUR event takes us out to Palm Beach Gardens in Florida and a Jack Nicklaus redesigned course in PGA National.
The event has a full field of over 140 players but once again, many of the top players are skipping this week. Shane Lowry and Sungjae Im are the two top-ranked golfers in this field, but without any other big names, this remains a very wide open event. I wrote a little about the course in play in this week’s Golf Cheat Sheet for the Cognizant Classic, up on DraftKings Network.
“PGA National… always plays as one of the toughest on the PGA TOUR. It was ranked the fifth-hardest venue on the PGA TOUR in 2019 and the third-hardest in 2021. To give you some idea of what’s in store this week: since 2012, the winning score at PGA National has failed to pass 10-under-par on all but two occasions. Calmer conditions allowed the winner to reach 14-under last year, but the wind and weather can be a big factor with the stadium course environment and the late winter date.
The greens are still Tifeagle Bermuda and can play quite fast if the weather gets hot enough. They will be even tougher to hold if the wind is up. Green in Regulation %’s at this event are some of the lowest we’ll see all season and typically fall 5-7% under the PGA TOUR average. As such, PGA National, as you might expect, puts a huge premium on ball-striking. It rewards players who can pound the greens hole after hole and also those who possess the short game necessary to navigate the plethora of greenside bunkers.
For statistical purposes, solid overall ball-striking is key to avoiding big numbers, but it’s generally on approach where players can make up the most ground. Four of the last five winners at PGA National — Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im, Chris Kirk and Matt Jones — gained over +5.0 strokes on their approaches for the week and most of the winners here have also tended to be very positive in their stats around the green for the week.”
The wind looks minimal for Round 1, although they could come up slightly in the afternoon, which has me leaning somewhat toward AM players having a slight advantage. Despite the tough setup, players can go low here if they are hitting their irons well, and some of the totals on the board this week look awfully high.
Below I’ll give you my best ideas for Thursday’s DraftKings Pick6 lineups.
Brian Harman Less Than 69.5 Strokes
I like this setup for Harman. He’s coming in off a week of rest and to a course in PGA National that he likes. The American shot a 61 on PGA National back in 2012 and has played this event a ton, although with few big finishes.
This year could be the one where he finally breaks through. He comes in off of three straight made cuts and a solid T-17 at the longer Torrey Pines where he gained 1.7 strokes on approach. He also has the advantage of an earlier tee time on Thursday, which could help slightly.
It’s been a bit up and down this season for Harman but I think there is a great chance he gets off to a fast start and puts in an under-par round for us on Thursday. With the total at just 69.5 and him needing just a -2 or better on Thursday to hit his less than, I’d rather be bullish on Harman than bearish in this spot.
Russell Henley More Than 4.5 Birdies or Better
Henley is another player who sets up extremely well for PGA National and comes in playing well. The veteran finished T-5 at Pebble Beach just two starts ago and also started his season with two solid starts in Hawaii, where he finished T-10 at the Sony Open.
A winner at PGA National back in 2014, Henley’s short iron game allows him to manage his way around PGA National better than most and he’s generally quite aggressive with his lines on many of the par 3s. From a recent form perspective, he’s also been a great birdie maker of late, ranking 11th in opportunities gained and 14th in Birdies or Better Gained over the last 24 rounds.
With PGA National now having an extra Par 5 and playing as a par 71, he should have a great shot at getting to five or better birdies on Thursday with his earlier tee time.
Taylor Pendrith More Than 2.5 Bogies or Worse
Pendrith started the season hot but there are some obvious holes forming in his game. He’s just 86th in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds of play and has lost strokes putting and around the greens in each of his last two starts. Maybe he just needed a break or rest, but the truth is this setup isn’t the greatest for Pendrith, who is a bomber off the tee and generally benefits from a softer and more expansive setup.
PGA National is a claustrophobic course that caters to accurate iron players, a part of the game Pendrith also struggled with his last time out, losing 2.0 strokes on approach at Torrey Pines. While the extra par 5 benefits Pendrith, almost every hole on PGA National brings bogey or worse into play. Given his sudden tail-off and the unsuitability of this week’s venue, I think a bearish approach is warranted on him for Round 1 and I like the more than on the 2.5 bogies or worse option as the play.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!