The Pebble Beach Pro-Am enters a fascinating weekend with some surprise contenders at the top of the leaderboard. Ben Coley has the preview.
Golf betting tips: Pebble Beach two-balls
1pt Hovland and McIlroy to win their three-balls at 5/1 (General)
1pt Mitchell and SW Kim to win their three-balls at 18/5 (General)
0.5pt four-fold the above selections at 28/1 (General)
It’s been a good couple of days for these previews, with a winning 9/2 treble to begin things followed by a confident double at just north of 2/1, but we have to begin by acknowledging that things get a little trickier once players are grouped by leaderboard position.
Some of the best evidence in golf is the most recent so when players can barely be split over 36 holes, it stands to reason that spotting genuine weakness won’t be easy. That is now complicated by the fact we’re in three-balls for the third round, rather than two-balls.
There was a slight, unexpected draw bias over the first two rounds, one which worked against outright picks Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood. It was about a shot, so nothing too dramatic, but does leave us with seven of the top nine having played Spyglass Hill on Friday and a general sense that they had the best of it.
In part this has contributed to another somewhat curious leaderboard, something worth remembering for future editions. I wrote earlier in the week that Pebble Beach is one of the likelier Signature Event venues when it comes to throwing up a surprise champion, and none of the current top nine was priced under 40/1. Our selection Xander Schauffele, in a tie for 10th, is faring best of the favourites so far.
We’ll see how things develop from here but bear in mind the weather forecast. It’s set to be windy from around 4pm today and then throughout the final round, and if it’s as severe as suggested we could be in for chaos.
VIKTOR HOVLAND is the first three-ball pick against Ben Griffin and Denny McCarthy.
Hovland has played very nicely since a nightmare start to the tournament. He was five behind McCarthy and four behind Griffin after two holes, so over the following 34 he’s been much the best of this trio.
That comment also applies to his ball-striking. McCarthy, as you might expect, has produced dazzling numbers on and around the greens but ranks 79th of 80 in strokes-gained approach and not much better off the tee. Griffin, whose record here is poor, is 63rd and 48th in those categories, his scores again built on short-game efficiency.
Hovland has returned to his old ways around the greens but again his stats are heavily influenced by what happened over the first two holes. He’s driven the ball better as the tournament has developed, remains one of the best iron players in the field, and can continue to progress up the leaderboard.
I wasn’t necessarily in a rush to back RORY MCILROY given the quality of his playing partners, but at close to 6/4 he’s a bet against Russell Henley and Tommy Fleetwood.
The latter was disappointing after a bright start to round two. Four-under through six but level thereafter, that only after an unlikely par at the 18th, this was a repeat of the first round where he reached six-under with plenty of the round to play but could only shoot five-under in the end.
It’s been frustrating to watch and he’s going to have to hit the ball better to get back into this tournament, whereas for McIlroy it’s about making a putt or two. He ranks third in strokes-gained ball-striking and has been imperious in that department, which bodes well for the weekend, and the season, ahead.
Nobody else is in the top five both off the tee and on approach and McIlroy really does seem to have clicked now reunited with his blades, so he can outscore both Fleetwood and Henley, the latter also having been iffy from tee-to-green. In fact, as the fourth-best putter in the field he’s relied heavily on one area, and I wouldn’t expect him to keep that up given his previous on these poa annua greens.
We’re taking on three Ryder Cup players and the best putter in the game with these selections, but 5/1 is a nice price.
Among the more low-key groups, KEITH MITCHELL can win again.
He was excellent in round two and that was not a coincidence: this is a player who is far more effective at Pebble Beach than he is Spyglass Hill, and it showed. Now we’re at the host course for two more rounds, he will expect to further climb the leaderboard.
Steven Fisk is out of form and his long-game, usually his strength, hasn’t been firing, while Billy Horschel is still well short of his best. Despite last year’s top 10 his overall record at this course is not good, either.
Mitchell’s 67 is the pick of the Pebble Beach scores among this trio so far and I doubt he’ll need to go that low to boss this group.
Finally, SI WOO KIM will relish returning here after a tough second round at Spyglass.
Like Mitchell, he’s far more comfortable at Pebble Beach so the move is a positive and if we’re going to side with a dodgy putter, why not do so against two more in Kevin Yu and Lucas Glover.
Predictably, Glover has struggled on his return from six months out, his iron play the one positive, while Yu could only shoot 71 at the host course under ideal conditions on day one.
Kim made a blistering start to that round and carded a 67 in the end, again the best Pebble Beach score among this group. Forgive him an off day at Spyglass, where he usually struggles, and he looks knocking value at odds-against as one of the in-form players in the game.
Posted at 07:35 GMT on 14/02/26
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